2025 Cook Inlet Sockeye Salmon Forecast is 6.9 Million Fish!
The 2025 Kenai River Sockeye Salmon Return is projected to be 25% higher than the ten year average.
ADFG Advisory Announcement
For Immediate Release: January 27, 2025
CONTACT:
Kyle Gatt, Research Biologist
(907) 260-2923
Jack Erickson, Regional Research Coordinator
(907) 267-2376
According to an advisory announcement dated January 25, 2025 the projection for the 2025 Cook Inlet; Kenai and Kasilof River sockeye salmon returns is “excellent.”
Forecasts of salmon fisheries are inherently uncertain and are primarily used to gauge the general magnitude of expected runs
and guide early-season management strategies.
Table 1. – Forecast of the 2025 Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon run, escapement, and harvest in millions of fish.
Forecast range is indicated in parenthesis.
Production component Forecast estimate
Total run 6.93 (5.41 – 8.45)
Escapement 2.00
Available harvest 4.93
Category Range (million) Percentile
Poor Less than 4.2 Less than 20th
Weak 4.2 to 5.2 20th to 40th
Average 5.2 to 5.9 40th to 60th
Strong 5.9 to 6.5 60th to 80th
Excellent Greater than 6.5 Greater than 80th
The Kenai River sockeye salmon forecast is approximately 4.19 million fish . The 2025
Kenai River forecast is 302,400 (7.5%) fish more than the historical (1986–2024) average run of
3.88 million and 968,000 (26%) fish more than the recent 10-year (2015–2024) average run of
3.22 million. Forecast error for the Kenai River has ranged from 42% below forecast to
59% above forecast over the last ten years with a MAPE of 21%.
The Kasilof River sockeye salmon run forecast is approximately 1.24 million fish. Over
the past 10 years, the Kasilof River forecast has experienced a MAPE of 25%, with errors ranging
from 35% under forecast to 79% over forecast. The 2025 forecast is 311,000 fish (28%) greater
than the historical (1986–2024) average run of 930,000 fish and 261,000 fish (23.5%) greater than
the recent 10-year (2015–2024) average run.
Plan your 2025 Kenai River Sockeye salmon Trip with Alaska Fishing with Mark Glassmaker
Dates are filling fast for our most popular sockeye salmon dates on both the Kenai and the Kasilof.
The Kasilof run will be in full swing by mid June and we will transition to the Kenai in mid July and fish there until mid August or until the late run of sockeye subsides. On larger runs the sockeye fishing can remain productive even into the first week of September.
The Kenai River now has a permanent six fish limit per person, per day from June 20 to Aug 15.
Call or email today for available dates and reservations.
1-800-622-1177
Links for more information:
Mark and Cindy Glassmaker have been married for 28 years, and their business, Alaska Fishing with Mark Glassmaker, has been operating since 1990. Over the past 34 years guiding on the Kenai River, we’ve witnessed many changes. Through early diversification and the dedication of our entire guide staff and team, we’ve built and maintained what we believe is the premier Kenai River fishing experience.
We take great pride in our work and in the reputation our business stands for. Your trip becomes part of that legacy, and we are committed to making it exceptional. Every outing is approached with 100% effort and service, ensuring that your Alaska fishing trips not only meets but exceeds expectations.